Expression of TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP in children with suspected COVID-19 and real-life impact of a computational signature on clinical decision-making: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the host-response marker score "BV" and its components TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP in SARS-CoV-2 positive children, and estimated the potential impact on clinical decision-making. METHODS: We prospectively analyzed levels of TRAIL, IP-10, CRP, and the BV score, in children with suspected COVID-19. Classification of infectious etiology was performed by an expert panel. We used a 5-point-questionnaire to evaluate the intention to treat with antibiotics before and after receiving test results. RESULTS: We screened 111 children, of whom 6 (5.4%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. A total of 53 children were included for the exploratory analysis. Median age was 3.1 years (interquartile range [IQR] 1.3-4.3), and 54.7% (n = 29) were girls. A viral and a bacterial biomarker pattern was found in 27/53 (50.9%) and 15/53 (28.3%), respectively. BV scores differed between COVID-19, children with other viral infections, and children with bacterial infections (medians 29.5 vs. 9 vs. 66; p = 0.0006). Similarly, median TRAIL levels were different (65.5 vs. 110 vs. 78; p = 0.037). We found no differences in IP-10 levels (555 vs. 504 vs. 285; p = 0.22). We found a concordance between physicians' "unlikely intention to treat" children with a viral test result in most cases (n = 19/24, 79.2%). When physicians expressed a "likely intention to treat" (n = 15), BV test revealed 5 bacterial, viral, and equivocal scores each. Antibiotics were withheld in three cases (20%). Overall, 27/42 (64%) of pediatricians appraised the BV test positively, and considered it helpful in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: Host-response based categorization of infectious diseases might help to overcome diagnostic uncertainty, support clinical decision-making and reduce unnecessary antibiotic treatment.

Model-Based Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Hospitalization and Outcome in Germany, the Federal States and Districts.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenged many national health care systems, with hospitals reaching capacity limits of intensive care units (ICU). Thus, the estimation of acute local burden of ICUs is critical for appropriate management of health care resources. In this work, we applied non-linear mixed effects modeling to develop an epidemiological SARS-CoV-2 infection model for Germany, with its 16 federal states and 400 districts, that describes infections as well as COVID-19 inpatients, ICU patients with and without mechanical ventilation, recoveries, and fatalities during the first two waves of the pandemic until April 2021. Based on model analyses, covariates influencing the relation between infections and outcomes were explored. Non-pharmaceutical interventions imposed by governments were found to have a major impact on the spreading of SARS-CoV-2. Patient age and sex, the spread of variant B.1.1.7, and the testing strategy (number of tests performed weekly, rate of positive tests) affected the severity and outcome of recorded cases and could reduce the observed unexplained variability between the states. Modeling could reasonably link the discrepancies between fine-grained model simulations of the 400 German districts and the reported number of available ICU beds to coarse-grained COVID-19 patient distribution patterns within German regions.

German federal-state-wide seroprevalence study of 1st SARS-CoV-2 pandemic wave shows importance of long-term antibody test performance.

Background: Reliable data on the adult SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate in Germany are still scarce. We performed a federal state-wide cross-sectional seroprevalence study named SaarCoPS, that is representative for the adult population including elderly individuals and nursing home residents in the Saarland. Methods: Serum was collected from 2940 adults via stationary or mobile teams during the 1st pandemic wave steady state period. We selected an antibody test system with maximal specificity, also excluding seroreversion effects due to a high longitudinal test performance. For the calculations of infection and fatality rates, we accounted for the delays of seroconversion and death after infection. Results: Using a highly specific total antibody test detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 responses over more than 180 days, we estimate an adult infection rate of 1.02% (95% CI: [0.64; 1.44]), an underreporting rate of 2.68-fold (95% CI: [1.68; 3.79]) and infection fatality rates of 2.09% (95% CI: (1.48; 3.32]) or 0.36% (95% CI: [0.25; 0.59]) in all adults including elderly individuals, or adults younger than 70 years, respectively. Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of study design and test performance for seroprevalence studies, particularly when seroprevalences are low. Our results provide a valuable baseline for evaluation of future pandemic dynamics and impact of public health measures on virus spread and human health in comparison to neighbouring countries such as Luxembourg or France.

TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, interferon gamma-induced protein 10, and C-reactive protein in predicting the progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early prognostication of COVID-19 severity will potentially improve patient care. Biomarkers, such as TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), interferon gamma-induced protein 10 (IP-10), and C-reactive protein (CRP), might represent possible tools for point-of-care testing and severity prediction. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we analyzed serum levels of TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP in patients with COVID-19, compared them with control subjects, and investigated the association with disease severity. RESULTS: A total of 899 measurements were performed in 132 patients (mean age 64 years, 40.2% females). Among patients with COVID-19, TRAIL levels were lower (49.5 vs 87 pg/ml, P = 0.0142), whereas IP-10 and CRP showed higher levels (667.5 vs 127 pg/ml, P <0.001; 75.3 vs 1.6 mg/l, P <0.001) than healthy controls. TRAIL yielded an inverse correlation with length of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) stay, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, and National Early Warning Score, and IP-10 showed a positive correlation with disease severity. Multivariable regression revealed that obesity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.434, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.005-29.38), CRP (aOR 1.014, 95% CI 1.002-1.027), and peak IP-10 (aOR 1.001, 95% CI 1.00-1.002) were independent predictors of in-ICU mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated a correlation between COVID-19 severity and TRAIL, IP-10, and CRP. Multivariable regression showed a role for IP-10 in predicting unfavourable outcomes, such as in-ICU mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04655521.

IgG seroprevalence of COVID-19 among people living with HIV or at high risk of HIV in south-west Germany: A seroprevalence study.

OBJECTIVES: Seroprevalence studies of SARS-CoV-2 have shown that there is a high number of undiagnosed missing cases. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in people living with HIV (PLWH) is lacking. Therefore, we conducted a prospective cross-sectional study to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among PLWH without known diagnosis of COVID-19 in the south-west of Germany. METHODS: Serological testing for SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies based on two assays was performed in PLWH who visited the outpatient HIV centre of two hospitals from April to June 2020. Additionally, patients had to answer questionnaires about possible COVID-19-related symptoms and predefined risk factors. Moreover, we tested 50 non-HIV-infected patients receiving post- or pre-exposure (PEP/PrEP) HIV prophylaxis. RESULTS: In all, 594 (488 male, 106 female) PLWH (median age 51 years) and 50 PEP/PrEP-users were included in the study. The estimated seroprevalence of the PLWH cohort was 1.85% (11/594), with 11 positive tested cases in the cohort. Among all patients, only five had COVID-19-related symptoms. One PCR-positive patient did not show any antibody response in repeatedly carried out tests. None of the patients was hospitalized due to COVID-19. Three PrEP users were tested positive. Three patients had been previously diagnosed with SARS-COV-2 infection before inclusion. The used questionnaire did not help to detect SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the limitation of being only a snapshot in time because of the ongoing pandemic, to our knowledge this is the largest study so far on seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in PLWH in Germany. Our study suggests that the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in PLWH is comparable to those previously reported for parts of the general German population and that the questionnaire used here might not be the best tool to predict COVID-19 diagnosis.

Simple Questionnaires to Improve Pooling Strategies for SARS-CoV-2 Laboratory Testing.

Background: Liberal PCR testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is key to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Combined multi-sample testing in pools instead of single tests might enhance laboratory capacity and reduce costs, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Objective: The purpose of our study was to assess the value of a simple questionnaire to guide and further improve pooling strategies for SARS-CoV-2 laboratory testing. Methods: Pharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing were obtained from healthcare and police staff, hospital inpatients, and nursing home residents in the southwestern part of Germany. We designed a simple questionnaire, which included questions pertaining to a suggestive clinical symptomatology, recent travel history, and contact with confirmed cases to stratify an individual's pre-test probability of having contracted COVID-19. The questionnaire was adapted repeatedly in face of the unfolding pandemic in response to the evolving epidemiology and observed clinical symptomatology. Based on the response patterns, samples were either tested individually or in multi-sample pools. We compared the pool positivity rate and the number of total PCR tests required to obtain individual results between this questionnaire-based pooling strategy and randomly assembled pools. Findings: Between March 11 and July 5, 2020, we processed 25,978 samples using random pooling (n = 6,012; 23.1%) or questionnaire-based pooling (n = 19,966; 76.9%). The overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.9% (n = 238). Pool positivity (14.6% vs. 1.2%) and individual SARS-CoV-2 prevalence (3.4% vs. 0.1%) were higher in the random pooling group than in the questionnaire group. The average number of PCR tests needed to obtain the individual result for one participant was 0.27 tests in the random pooling group, as compared to 0.09 in the questionnaire-based pooling group, leading to a laboratory capacity increase of 73% and 91%, respectively, as compared to single PCR testing. Conclusions: Strategies that combine pool testing with a questionnaire-based risk stratification can increase laboratory testing capacities for COVID-19 and might be important tools, particularly in resource-constrained settings.

Decline of emergency admissions for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events after the outbreak of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The spread of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the guidance from authorities for social distancing and media reporting lead to significant uncertainty in Germany. Concerns have been expressed regarding the underdiagnosing of harmful diseases. We explored the rates of emergency presentations for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and acute cerebrovascular events (ACVE) before and after spread of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: We analyzed all-cause visits at a tertiary university emergency department and admissions for ACS and ACVE before (calendar weeks 1-9, 2020) and after (calendar weeks 10-16, 2020) the first coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case in the region of the Saarland, Germany. The data were compared with the same period of the previous year. RESULTS: In 2020 an average of 346 patients per week presented at the emergency department whereas in 2019 an average of 400 patients presented up to calendar week 16 (p = 0.018; whole year 2019 = 395 patients per week). After the first COVID-19 diagnosis in the region, emergency department visit volume decreased by 30% compared with the same period in 2019 (p = 0.0012). Admissions due to ACS decreased by 41% (p = 0.0023 for all; Δ - 71% (p = 0.007) for unstable angina, Δ - 25% (p = 0.42) for myocardial infarction with ST-elevation and Δ - 17% (p = 0.28) without ST-elevation) compared with the same period in 2019 and decreased from 142 patients in calendar weeks 1-9 to 62 patients in calendar weeks 10-16. ACVE decreased numerically by 20% [p = 0.25 for all; transient ischemic attack: Δ - 32% (p = 0.18), ischemic stroke: Δ - 23% (p = 0.48), intracerebral haemorrhage: Δ + 57% (p = 0.4)]. There was no significant change in ACVE per week (p = 0.7) comparing calendar weeks 1-9 (213 patients) and weeks 10-16 (147 patients). Testing of 3756 samples was performed to detect 58 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (prevalence 1,54%, thereof one patient with myocardial and two with cerebral ischemia) up to calendar week 16 in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause admission and admissions due to cardiovascular events in the emergency department. Regarding acute cerebrovascular events there was a numerical decrease but no significant difference.